The September shop: what actually came down and what has not moved
Fresh produce is down on seasonal grounds; cleaning products and paper goods are flat.
The clearest fall in the September basket is in tomatoes, peppers and aubergines. That is purely seasonal: the same lines will be climbing again by the end of October.
The part that has not moved is less obvious on the shelf — detergent, kitchen roll and tinned goods are all sitting where they were in June.
For a household budget the difference is not in the percentages, it is in which week the payment falls.
Inside the basket
Trade bodies say they expect a change in the rules. There is no draft to hang that expectation on yet.
Figures on their own can mislead. The same data tells two different stories depending on which month you compare it with.
The difference you do not see at the till
What traders describe and what the monthly numbers show line up this time. That has not happened often in the past two years.
The monthly change looks small because the promotions have bunched into the weekend. Between someone doing the same shop on a Tuesday and someone doing it on a Saturday, the difference is visible.
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